How U.S. Presidents Are Regarded Historically. The Contrast Between Historians’ Judgment and the Retrospective Public Opinion Approval Ratings

In April 2013, when covering the opening of his presidential library in Dallas, part of the media attention was drawn by the “unexpected” surge in approval ratings of former President George W. Bush. That surprise came because the 43rd President was very unpopular when he left office in 2009 and because he is still considered by many scholars as one as the “worst Presidents in history”. Although scholars’ judgment and public opinion surveys often seem not to match each other, this paper explains that George W. Bush’s rise is exactly what one would expect, based on the history of other former presidents’ approval ratings. Indeed, retrospective approval ratings typically exceed approval ratings while in office.